Nigerians may soon experience significant relief at filling stations across the country as petroleum marketers and industry stakeholders project that the pump price of Premium Motor Spirit (PMS), popularly known as petrol, could fall to as low as ₦900 per litre if the proposed peace agreement between the United States and Iran is successfully concluded and global crude oil prices continue their current downward trajectory.
The optimism follows recent developments in the Middle East, where diplomatic efforts aimed at ending months of tension between Washington and Tehran have begun producing positive signals for global energy markets. The prospect of a lasting truce, coupled with plans to fully reopen the strategically important Strait of Hormuz, has triggered a steady decline in international crude oil prices, raising hopes that consumers around the world, including Nigeria, may soon benefit from lower fuel costs.
For months, global oil markets were dominated by fears arising from the conflict between the United States and Iran. The hostilities, which disrupted confidence in energy supply routes and threatened one of the world’s most critical oil transit corridors, pushed crude oil prices sharply upward. At the height of the crisis, international crude prices climbed above $120 per barrel, creating a ripple effect that was felt across economies dependent on petroleum products.
Nigeria was not spared from the consequences. The increase in global crude prices translated into higher costs for refined petroleum products, causing petrol prices within the country to surge dramatically. Consumers who previously purchased fuel at around ₦830 per litre suddenly found themselves paying as much as ₦1,300 per litre in several parts of the country. Diesel and aviation fuel prices also experienced significant increases, creating additional pressure on businesses, transport operators and airlines.
The sharp rise in energy costs contributed to inflationary pressures, increased transportation expenses and heightened concerns about the overall cost of living. Many Nigerians struggled to cope with the burden as businesses adjusted prices upward to reflect rising operational costs.
However, the situation appears to be changing as diplomatic progress between the United States and Iran continues to influence market sentiment. International oil prices have steadily declined from the highs recorded earlier in the year. From levels exceeding $120 per barrel during the peak of tensions, crude prices have reportedly fallen to around $87 per barrel, a development that many industry players believe could eventually translate into lower fuel prices for consumers.
The anticipated reopening of the Strait of Hormuz has further strengthened expectations of market stability. The waterway remains one of the most important oil transit routes in the world, handling a substantial portion of global crude exports. Any disruption within the strait typically triggers immediate concerns about supply shortages, leading to spikes in oil prices. Conversely, the restoration of unrestricted shipping activities through the corridor is expected to improve supply confidence and place downward pressure on global energy prices.
Industry stakeholders believe these developments could trigger another round of price adjustments by major players in Nigeria’s downstream petroleum sector, including the Dangote Petroleum Refinery, which has emerged as a key influence in determining domestic fuel pricing trends.
In recent months, the refinery has implemented several pricing adjustments in response to changing market conditions. The company previously reduced the gantry price of petrol from ₦1,275 per litre to ₦1,250 per litre, while diesel prices were lowered from ₦1,800 per litre to ₦1,700 per litre. Those reductions followed a decline in crude oil prices below the $100-per-barrel threshold.
With crude oil now trading significantly lower than those levels, industry analysts believe additional reductions may become increasingly difficult to avoid if current trends persist.
According to sources familiar with developments within the refinery, there is a strong possibility that petrol prices could eventually decline to around ₦900 per litre. However, insiders note that the situation is complicated by the fact that the refinery still possesses substantial inventories of crude oil acquired when prices were considerably higher.
As a result, any immediate reduction may be moderated by the need to account for existing stock purchased under less favorable market conditions. Nevertheless, experts agree that if lower crude prices are sustained over time, refiners and marketers will eventually be compelled to pass the benefits on to consumers.
One industry source reportedly acknowledged that a ₦900-per-litre petrol price is achievable under current market conditions, provided the downward movement in crude prices continues and geopolitical tensions remain subdued.
The Petroleum Retail Outlet Owners Association of Nigeria (PETROAN) has also expressed optimism regarding the outlook for fuel prices. According to the association, the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz would represent a major turning point for global energy markets and could pave the way for substantial reductions in petrol prices across Nigeria.
PETROAN’s Publicity Secretary, Joseph Obele, noted that fuel prices had remained relatively moderate before the outbreak of the Middle East crisis. He recalled that petrol was selling at approximately ₦800 per litre before tensions escalated and disrupted global oil markets.
Obele argued that a return to peaceful conditions could restore market confidence and facilitate a gradual return to pre-conflict pricing levels. He expressed confidence that Nigerians would witness meaningful reductions at filling stations if the current diplomatic progress is sustained.
The optimism surrounding fuel prices has been further fueled by recent statements attributed to United States President Donald Trump. In a social media post, Trump indicated that a peace agreement with Iran was imminent and suggested that the Strait of Hormuz would be reopened to unrestricted international shipping immediately after the deal's implementation.
According to Trump, the proposed arrangement differs significantly from previous agreements reached with Iran, emphasizing that the new framework would prevent the development or acquisition of nuclear weapons by Tehran while fostering improved relations between both countries.
His remarks were interpreted by financial markets as a positive signal that long-standing tensions may finally be easing, contributing to continued declines in crude oil prices.
Meanwhile, market intelligence gathered from petroleum depots indicates that some marketers have already begun adjusting their ex-depot prices downward, even before any formal implementation of the anticipated peace agreement. Several operators are reportedly selling PMS below the current benchmark price maintained by major suppliers, reflecting growing confidence that market conditions are shifting in favor of lower prices.
Industry experts believe that if crude oil prices continue their descent and fuel imports remain competitive, Nigeria could witness an intense pricing battle among marketers, importers and refiners. Such competition would likely benefit consumers by driving pump prices lower across various regions of the country.
Political and economic analysts monitored by DOYA News note that while a ₦900-per-litre petrol price remains a projection rather than a certainty, the factors currently influencing global energy markets strongly support the possibility of further reductions in the coming weeks. They argue that sustained peace in the Middle East would remove one of the biggest sources of uncertainty affecting crude oil prices and create conditions favorable for lower fuel costs worldwide.
According to experts who spoke with DOYA News, the next few weeks will be critical in determining whether the anticipated peace agreement translates into lasting stability in energy markets. Should the US-Iran truce hold and the Strait of Hormuz remain fully operational, Nigerians could soon enjoy one of the most significant reductions in petrol prices seen since the beginning of the Middle East crisis, bringing welcome relief to households, businesses and the broader economy.